Elisabeth Lloyd (Indiana University), Naomi Oreskes (Harvard University)
Recently, some scientists have offered a new approach to the analysis of extreme weather events, in which an autopsy of the causes of the event is given, in contrast to the usual approach which focuses on questions of risk. This new method was met with a great deal of resistance, some of it quite bitter and polemical. The newer "storyline" methods may overstate anthropogenic contributions to extreme weather events, while the older "risk-based' methods may understate them. We believe that scientists should achieve a better balance in assessing these risks and choose appropriate methods for each case accordingly.
