Simon Huttegger (University of California, Irvine)
Kolmogorov's concept of conditional expectation can be thought of as a very general way of updating on new information, including Bayesian conditioning as a special case. This role of conditional expectation can be explored in terms of the reflection principle and martingale conditions, which in turn can be justified in a variety of ways, such as dynamic coherence arguments, accuracy arguments, and arguments based on the value of evidence. This paper studies these approaches in a fully general measure theoretic framework.
