Karim Bschir (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH), Lydia Braunack-Mayer (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH)
In this paper, we challenge a claim made by Frigg et al. (2014) that uncertainty about the true structure of a nonlinear model debilitates our ability to make decision-relevant predictions. We argue that Frigg et al. underrate the numerous tools of modern statistics for the handling of model uncertainty, and thus overstate the epistemic consequences of SME in general. We do concede, however, that their arguments point at serious limitations in the context of climate science. These limitations arise due to specific properties of climate models and the ensembles used in climate science.
