Diversity, Uncertainty, and Action: Coping with a Plurality of Climate Models

Two difficult challenges for climate science and policy making are (i) achieving a proper understanding of the sources and the extent of scientific uncertainties regarding future climate outcomes and (ii) adopting appropriate decision and policy frameworks in light of them. In part, uncertainties are associated with the existence of a diversity of models climate scientists use to predict climate outcomes: there is no single predictively best climate model. At the same time, appealing to a diverse set of models is often assumed to mitigate existing uncertainties and, where uncertainties cannot be reduced, provide the input needed for broadly precautionary decision procedures. This symposium brings together a group of philosophers and a renowned climate scientist to address a set of questions concerning model diversity, uncertainty, and climate policy. What is the nature of climate model diversity and what does this tell us about how confident we can be in predictions on which different climate models agree? What can we infer from the fact that as climate models ostensibly improve their range of predictions does not seem to get narrower? Finally, given that some uncertainty is likely to remain, what strategies are available for accommodating uncertainties in climate policy decisions?