Mathias Frisch (Leibniz Universität Hannover)
I analyze a recent disagreement concerning the argument from inductive risk by asking how we should structure decision-making processes in the face of uncertainties in climate forecasts. I distinguish different hedging strategies (aimed at avoiding endorsing uncertain hypotheses) and different decision strategies with which they can be paired. If climate predictions are deeply uncertain, then the argument from inductive risk might be avoided by adopting a precautionary approach. Yet this approach does not provide the fine-grained predictions required for climate policy targets. Deciding on a climate policy requires that climate scientists 'stick their necks out' more than hedging strategies allow.
